He pointed to the upcoming 50% copper tariff as particularly concerning, as “construction uses a ton of copper.” Data centers, one of the largest drivers of office construction, may be particularly affected given their use of large amounts of copper, as well as electrical contractors. Arizona, however, may be a beneficiary as a leader in domestic copper mining, with Ivanhoe Electric planning a new copper mine in the state, releasing a preliminary feasibility study in June. 

Total non-residential construction spending rose 40.1% during the period between the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 and May 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufacturing, spurred by funding from the Biden administration, has seen the most growth, up 191.3% since the start of the pandemic, but experienced a 3.7% drop year-over-year in May 2025. Other public sectors such as water supply and sewage waste disposal also saw a large increase in the same 5-year period, at a rate of 82.5% and 77.7%, respectively.

Year-over-year, overall non-residential spending fell 1.1% as of May 2025. Religious construction saw the highest spending increase, at 11.6%, while commercial spending sat at the bottom of the list, down 10.3% in the past year. The water sector also saw gains, with a 9.2% increase for sewage and waste disposal and a 6.1% increase for water supply construction. Health care spending is flat, which Basu attributed partially to cuts to Medicaid in the recently passed spending bill. “The Congressional Budget Office says that millions of people are going to lose their Medicaid in the next decade [leading to] more uncompensated care and less capital for construction projects.”

Overall, Basu expects growth in 2025, but cautions that “there are some risks that did not exist on January 1 of this year, [and] a lot of this concern relates to federal policy."