And there are enough points on the graph to see a pattern now, Pierce says. “Especially the part of the construction [equipment] market that we look at, that’s been pretty consistently dropping a percent [in resale values] month-to-month. Pretty good indicator of a trend there.”

And it’s not just a matter of flushing older machines out of the secondary channels at lower prices either, adds Pierce. “You have roughly a five percent or six percent decrease in age and usage compared to last year, so even the newer stuff is going at a lower price. It’s a pretty good indicator of a decline in prices overall.” Pierce says that EquipmentWatch hasn’t seen a rise of machine volume at resale or auction, so the decline isn’t being driven by a glut either.

And there are signs that original equipment manufacturers continue to struggle in some construction categories. John Deere reported a 29% year-over-year decline in net sales and a 36% decline in operating profit for its construction and forestry division in its fourth quarter results Nov. 21. The OEM blamed lower shipping volumes, and foresees softening demand in 2025. “Headwinds from historically low levels of earthmoving rental re-fleeting and somewhat elevated used inventories will further pressure equipment sales as market uncertainty persists into the start of fiscal 2025,” Deere investment communications manager Joshua Rohleder told analysts on a Nov. 21 call.

Things were not quite so dire for Caterpillar, whose most recent third quarter results announced Oct. 30 saw year-over-year sales and revenue decline to 16.1 billion from $16.8 billion, a slide of about 4%, with operating profit also slightly down. Looking forward, Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby did see a few possible hurdles ahead, including the long-debated tariff issue impacting multinational companies like Cat. “We are a global manufacturer. We try to mostly produce in region for region, [but] not completely,” he said during a call with analysts Oct. 30. “We will have to see how that all plays out based on market conditions and what actually happens. And it’s a bit early now. … I always like to wait to see what actually happens as opposed to making too many predictions before a new administration even gets in power.”

Tariffs notwithstanding, equipment values are expected to continue to slide, along with a similar trend in the lift market as well. And looking at the bigger picture, it may just be a long-overdue correction toward pre-COVID-19 pricing, before supply chain constraints drove up costs for a few years, EquipmentWatch’s Pierce notes. “Before COVID these values were lower, and we may be seeing a return to that, albeit slowly.”