The dollar value of starts in the commercial sector, which includes stores, offices, warehouses, hotels and parking, are expected to fall 6% to $156 billion in 2023, then another 2% to approximately $153 billion next year. Branch attributes this due to warehouse construction, previously strong due to the rising popularity of online shopping, entering a cooling off period. “I hesitate to call this an economic downturn,” Branch said, but rather a “recalibration” necessary after “one player [steps] out.”

After an astounding 217% increase in 2022, manufacturing will fall slightly by the end of this year, at a rate of 5%, before increasing 16% in 2024, Dodge predicts. The increase is “not a surprise, considering the impact of the CHIP and Inflation Reduction Acts,” said Branch.

Non-building starts, still bolstered by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), are up 25% in 2023 and expected to increase an additional 7% in 2024. In the transportation sector, both bridge and street construction starts are forecast to end this year up 14%. In 2024, the value of bridge projects is predicted to rise 25%, with street construction not far behind with a 23% increase.