There comes a time in an economic cycle when things can go either way. The second half of 2002 may just be one of those times for construction. The pessimists have plenty of bad economic news to make their case, including a string of business scandals, a shaky stock market and rising oil prices, spurred even higher by the threat of war with Iraq. Yet the economy is hanging together and economists say the recovery is under way.
"The recovery is coming along, although it will be the slowest first year of expansion in history," says David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's. The financial information services firm, like ENR part of the McGraw-Hill Cos., predicts that gross domestic product will grow at an annual rate of 3.5% during the second half of this year and then inch up to a 4% annual rate during the first half of 2003. "The recovery still faces plenty of risks but most of those are coming from the Middle East," he says.