“Job openings are no longer as available, [material] prices keep rising [and] people are having a tough time meeting basic obligations,” said Basu, adding that while Silicon Valley and Wall Street will be fine, “Main Street [will be] a little rocky.”

While total job openings are down, Basu noted that he had expected those in construction to rise due to changes in immigration policy, since about 25%r of construction workers are foreign born, but the uptick had not materialized. “I had expected … a bit of a surge… as more employers look to hire native-born workers or [documented workers] but we haven’t seen that,” he said.

Material Price Pressures Continue

Tariffs and inflation continue to push up material prices. Between February 2020, the month before the COVID-19 pandemic, and February 2026, total construction input prices have risen 45.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gas prices are up a whopping 157% in that time, while nonferrous wire and cable and steel mill products also saw substantial increases, at rates of 82.8% and 73.4%, respectively. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence that many of the categories that have experienced the largest price increases [are subject to] tariffs,” said Basu.

Total non-residential construction spending fell 0.1% between January 2025 and January 2026, with manufacturing seeing the largest drop, at 15%. Residential construction also declined as millennials continue to be priced out of the single-family market,  Basu notes. “People talk about the housing affordability crisis [but] we’re not actually solving the problem.”

“I think there’s enough to keep the economy afloat,” he added, but maintains that there’s still “real risk” of recession in this current volatile market.