“The U.S. can increase production, but you don't increase production in an hour,” says John Anton, pricing and purchasing director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “You increase production in three to six months.” Anton notes that when similar tariffs were put into place in 2018, steel prices initially rose 40%, before stabilizing at roughly 15-20% higher than steel prices in Europe. “I pretty much expect the same thing [this time], that they’ll go up rapidly, because people have to adjust for supply chain.”

The U.S. imports roughly 25% of its steel, says Anton, therefore he doesn’t expect prices to maintain a full 25% increase. However, “they will be higher than they would have been without the tariffs. Most will probably depend on how much U.S. producers restart idle capacity and how quickly the restarts happen.”

Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, notes other possible economic consequences as well. “President Trump has stated that the intended purpose of these tariffs is to boost U.S. production of steel and aluminum and reduce trade deficits. However, that’s unlikely to occur with just tariffs alone,” she says. “Instead, risk to the U.S. economy will increase alongside potential retaliatory tariffs, slower investment activity, weaker economic growth and higher prices.”