Global Construction's Overperformance Won't Last, Analyst Says
Modest growth is expected by 2023
Global construction output will grow by 6.4% over the next two years as the pandemic recedes, and by 2.3% a year on average untill 2030, according to a new forecast by U.K.-based analyst Global Construction Perspectives.
With the effects of COVID-19 diminishing by 2023, global construction output will follow more normal economic trends, says Mike Betts, the research firm's director.
But construction is likely to underperform the global economy in future years, despite ambitious infrastructure investment plans announced by many countries, says the forecaster.
The pandemic contributed an estimated 2% dip in global construction in 2020, while the world economy shrank by more than twice that rate.
Of 90 countries analyzed in the forecast, Panama, Singapore and the Philippines experienced the largest construction declines last year of 30%, 25% and 22%, respectively. Another 13 suffered double-digit drops. Saudi Arabia was the only country with double digit growth, at 15%.
Global construction output is forecast to rise from $11.6 trillion last year to nearly $15 trillion in 2030 at 2020 prices and constant exchange rates. Annual growth rates are forecast to increase by more than 8% a year in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Bangladesh while dipping by 0.5% in Japan.
While China will remain the world’s largest market, its global shareof construction is expected to dip from 32% last year to 29.2% in 2030.
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The U.S. share will stay fairly constant at about 12.4%, making it the second largest market, according to Global Construction Perspectives.
India is set to overtake Japan for third place in 2030, with tthe former's share rising from 4% to 6.3%. Japan’s contribution is expected to fall from 7% to 5.4% over the period.
