In EIA’s Reference Case scenario, which is based on laws and regulations currently in effect, natural gas is expected to maintain is leading share of electricity generation and continue to grow, increasing from 34% in 2018 to 39% in 2050. The outlook provides a range of scenarios for energy production and consumption,

U.S. crude oil production is expected to remain above 14 million barrels per day through 2040, according to the outlook. Renewable generation is projected to increase from 18% in 2018 to 31% in 2050, surpassing coal and nuclear in less than a decade. The sector’s growth will primarily be in solar and wind power generation, EIA says.

Colette Honorable, a former Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner, said during a panel discussion following the outlook’s release that she was “heartened” by the outlook’s projections. “With the onslaught of the renewables that we will see, we need that gas,” as well as infrastructure to support natural gas production, including pipelines, powerplants, and LNG terminals, she said.

But not everyone cheered the news. “When you read the report, you realize that absent swift and aggressive policy action, we are far from achieving the carbon reductions needed to curtail climate change,”  Steve Clemmer, director of energy research and analysis at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in an interview. He said while CO₂ emissions from the power sector have gone down over the past several years, emissions will level out due to an increased reliance on natural gas and the phaseout of federal tax credits for renewable power generation.

He added that this year’s report departed from usual practice and did not include projections for total energy-related CO₂ emissions in the U.S. “From a climate perspective, it’s critical to know how many tons are being released and how much we need to reduce emissions over time. While this data is available online, it begs the question of why the EIA left this essential information out.”