PCA Sees a Change In Market Drivers
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The Portland Cement Association, Skokie, Ill., predicts that the construction industry will shift gears in 2005, with public works and nonresidential building markets replacing the housing market as the industry’s main growth drivers. PCA’s forecast, which is adjusted for inflation, says that the result will be a 2.9% increase in the real value of total construction in 2005. This will be slightly less than this year’s 3.7% gain, after discounting for inflation. PCA predicts that the value of the single-family housing market will slip 0.5% in 2005 after jumping 15% in 2004. However, nonresidential construction is expected to bounce back 10% in 2005 after showing little real growth this year. Public construction also will make positive contributions to growth after this year’s inflation adjusted decline of 1.5%. In 2005, PCA predicts that public works will increase 4.0% in real terms.
| PCA Construction Put-in-Place $ billion (constant 1996 dollars) | |||||
| TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | PERCENT CHG. | |
| 03-04 | 04-05 | ||||
| TOTAL CONSTRUCTION | 697.6 | 723.7 | 744.7 | +3.7 | +2.9 |
| Total Residential | 361.9 | 392.5 | 391.2 | +8.5 | -0.3 |
| Total Nonresidential | 122.2 | 122.2 | 134.3 | 0.0 | +9.9 |
| Manufacturing | 10.9 | 10.3 | 15.8 | -5.5 | +53.4 |
| Office | 27.7 | 28.3 | 30.1 | +2.2 | +6.4 |
| Hotels Motels | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.3 | +2.6 | +6.4 |
| Hospitals Institutions | 13.9 | 13.8 | 14.2 | -0.7 | +2.9 |
| Religious and Miscellaneous | 12.4 | 12.2 | 12.4 | -1.6 | +1.6 |
| Educational | 10.2 | 9.7 | 10.3 | -4.9 | +6.2 |
| Commercial | 39.4 | 40.1 | 43.3 | +1.8 | +8.0 |
| Public Utility1 | 39.8 | 38.1 | 41.5 | -4.3 | +8.9 |
| Public Construction | 173.6 | 171.0 | 177.7 | -1.5 | +3.9 |
| Buildings | 78.7 | 75.6 | 78.8 | -3.9 | +4.2 |
| Highways & Streets | 48.1 | 48.7 | 50.4 | +1.3 | +3.5 |
| Conservation | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | +6.7 |
| Sewer Systems | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.2 | +2.9 | +3.7 |
| Water Supply | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | -3.8 | +2.6 |
| Military Security/Miscellaneous | 25.4 | 25.2 | 26.2 | -0.8 | +4.0 |
| Source: Portland Cement Association skokie, Ill. 1= Includes farms Building. | |||||
(Photo top by Monica N. Macezinskas, photo manipulation by Nancy Soulliard for ENR)
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