Complicating that fragility is a growing anxiety across the industry that its skilled work force is not keeping up with a renewed demand for services.

"The Front Range market should improve in 2014, as we have seen several projects being dusted off and brought back to life as well as a renewed sense of confidence in new development," Berumen adds. "But metro Denver has seen a significant change in the available work force since March [of 2013], and one of the most difficult challenges for 2014 will be finding craft labor as well as construction professionals to staff these projects. Contractors will strain to balance the need for additional resources with the financial reality that many of these projects were awarded when labor and staff were available at notably lower costs."

Michael Gifford, president of AGC of Colorado, says that many of his member firms are also concerned about staffing for the coming growth in projects. Gifford cites the economic strength of downtown Denver, continued development of the Regional Transportation District's FasTracks program and improving economic conditions in the mountain and resort communities as evidence of stronger growth anticipated for Colorado building contractors in 2014.

"Additionally, I am seeing an increase in the single-family residential remodeling sector," says Mike Wisneski, 2013 president of AIA Colorado. "I believe this is a good sign of increased consumer confidence and a reasonably optimistic forecast for 2014."

Pause Button

Despite those factors and the potential impact of several large new projects in Colorado—Colorado State University's new football stadium, with construction costs likely to be more than $200 million; the Gaylord Hotel and Resort near Denver International Airport, at nearly $800 million, with an estimated 10,000 construction jobs; and large, ongoing work such as the South Terminal Redevelopment at DIA, RTD's Eagle P3 rail and mixed-use developments in downtown Denver, especially in the Central Platte Valley—McGraw Hill Construction Dodge forecasts only a moderate 1.1% growth in construction starts for the state in 2014. "The Colorado market will hit the pause button next year. And that shouldn't alarm anyone," says Brewis. "It's not an indicator that anything is wrong. It's just that Colorado has experienced very strong growth for the past couple of years (12% in 2013 and 29% in 2012), and it can't be sustained at that level. We still see Colorado, and in fact, the entire Mountain West, as in very good shape compared to the rest of the country." The regional industry should be back to where it was in 2007 "very soon," he adds.

Brewis sees strength in Utah and Colorado multifamily construction, which he says will continue as a "nice little business"; hotels and hospitality work, with room-occupancy rates holding up well; smaller retail and office work; and some growth in the resort areas. Retail projects will be more renovation than ground-up construction, but "as single-family housing spreads, retail will grow with it," he says.

Consolidation in the health care arena and a saturation of regional hospital beds will change the short-term nature of construction in that sector, but longer term, "health care construction will do remarkably well," Brewis adds.

The education sector, as with other institutional work, will remain slow. "But education work is close to bottoming out," Brewis says. Higher-education projects, many of them funded without using public dollars, will lead the eventual recovery in the educational sector, but likely not in 2014.

The state's construction market is "getting better," says Rich Thorn, president and CEO of AGC of Utah. "Glimpses of optimism seem to be evident in conversations with our members. Some sectors seem better than others, but overall, we believe we are heading in the right direction."

McGraw Hill forecasts a nearly 12% bump next year for Utah and the Intermountain area. "And that's not to say the area is that much stronger than Colorado and Wyoming," Brewis says. "It's just that they are nearly a year ahead of Colorado in the recovery cycle. Colorado will see stronger growth in 2015."

He says that the Denver and Salt Lake City metro areas have similar strengths. Both are investing heavily in improved commuter rail and highway programs, both have healthy multifamily and hospitality markets and potential for growth in their resort and tourism arenas. And both will see some growth in their alternative-energy markets. "But," he cautions, "they are also subject to the same swings." Regional population growth and in-migration must be managed properly, he adds.

Northern Growth

Meanwhile, Idaho and Montana are anticipating a year of solid growth as well.

"Private investment, particularly in energy-related projects, appears to be increasing at a modest rate in Montana, with most of our member companies reporting higher revenues in 2013 and somewhat brighter prospects for 2014," says Cary Hegreberg, executive director of the Montana Contractors' Association, the AGC chapter in the state. "Highway contractors are on edge, as federal funding remains precarious and there is little appetite in our Legislature to appropriate state funds for highways."

Hegreberg adds that competition from employers in the oil-and-gas industry in neighboring states such as North Dakota is "posing a perplexing dilemma for Montana contractors. They finally see an increase in workload but can't find a work force," he adds.

Several large commercial building projects are nearing completion in Idaho, with others continuing into next year, says Wayne Hammon, executive director, Idaho AGC.