"PCA's forecast assumes the fiscal-cliff issues do not get resolved until after the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, there will be some negative impact on construction as a whole," says David Zwicke, senior economist with PCA, which predicts only a 1.3% increase in construction put-in-place next year, before rebounding strongly by 7% in 2014 and 12% in 2015. "We don't think the economy is strong enough to withstand the shock [of falling off the fiscal cliff]. But we could see some wide ranges in actual construction next year, depending on how things play out," says Zwicke.

To see the full report, including analysis and data in PDF format, click here. (Subscription required.)

 

MCGRAW-HILL CONSTRUCTION-STARTS FORECAST
 
NAME, AREA AND TYPE ACTUAL 2011 ESTIMATE 2012 FORECAST 2013 % CHG. '11 - '12 % CHG. '12 - '13
Total Construction 437,748 457,925 483,675 +4.6 +6.0
RESIDENTIAL 125,907 158,125 193,400 +25.6 +22.0
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING 97,345 123,500 153,100 +26.9 +24.0
MULTIFAMILY HOUSING 28,562 34,625 40,300 +21.2 +16.0
NON-RESIDENTIAL 164,333 148,200 155,275 –9.8 +5.0
OFFICE BUILDING 17,275 15,750 17,400 –8.8 +10.0
HOTELS AND MOTELS 5,342 6,000 6,700 +12.3 +12.0
STORES AND SHOPPING CENTERS 13,577 14,975 16,875 +10.3 +13.0
OTHER COMMERCIAL 11,552 13,375 14,950 +15.8 +12.0
MANUFACTURING 17,114 11,800 12,775 –31.1 +8.0
EDUCATIONAL BUILDINGS 42,504 36,350 35,250 –14.5 –3.0
HEALTH-CARE FACILITIES 23,159 20,275 21,100 –12.5 +4.0
OTHER INSTITUTIONAL BUILDINGS 33,810 29,675 30,225 –12.2 +2.0
NON-BUILDINGS CONSTRUCTION 147,508 151,600 135,000 +2.8 –11.0
HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES 56,277 50,600 52,300 –10.1 +3.0
ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC WORKS 31,428 28,700 27,500 –8.7 –4.0
OTHER PUBLIC WORKS 16,131 21,300 20,200 +32.0 –5.0
ELECTRIC UTILITIES 43,672 51,000 35,000 +16.8 –31.0

SOURCE: MCGRAW-HILL CONSTRUCTION

 

 

PCA CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE FORECAST
 
NAME, AREA AND TYPE ACTUAL 2011 ESTIMATE 2012 FORECAST 2013 % CHG. '11 - '12 % CHG. '12 - '13
Total Construction 475.8 504.1 510.8 +5.9 +1.3
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL Building 159.6 180.5 192.7 +13.1 +6.8
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 88.1 95.4 94.8 +8.3 –0.7
INDUSTRIAL 21.3 24.3 23.4 +14.1 –3.6
OFFICE 14.8 15.7 15.6 +6.4 –0.9
HOTELS, MOTELS 5.1 6.3 7.0 +24.9 +9.6
HOSPITALS, INSTITUTIONS 15.2 15.9 15.7 +4.6 –1.1
RELGIOUS AND MISCELLANEOUS 2.6 2.4 2.3 –8.1 –4.1
EDUCATIONAL 7.1 8.3 7.8 +16.7 –5.8
COMMERCIAL 17.9 18.7 19.2 +4.3 +2.6
PUBLIC UTILITY 60.0 69.5 71.2 +15.8 +2.4
PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION 163.0 153.7 147.3 –5.7 –4.1
BUILDINGS 63.3 57.9 53.5 –8.5 –7.5
HIGHWAYS AND STREETS 44.2 43.2 42.5 –2.1 –1.8
CONSERVATION 4.1 3.2 3.1 –21.1 –3.6
SEWER SYSTEMS 13.7 13.0 12.6 –4.8 –3.2
WATER SUPPLY 8.4 7.6 7.2 –9.9 –4.4
miscellaneous 23.8 23.2 23.1 –2.5 –0.4
SOURCE: PORTLAND CEMENT ASSOCIATION SKOKIE, ILL.

 

FMI CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE FORECAST
 
NAME, AREA AND TYPE ACTUAL 2011 ESTIMATE 2012 FORECAST 2013 % CHG. '11 - '12 % CHG. '12 - '13
Total Construction 788,647 824,926 892,064 +5.0 +8.0
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 245,360 267,946 306,162 +9.0 +14.0
SINGLE-FAMILY 107,796 126,651 155,805 +17.0 +23.0
MULTIFAMILY 17,247 22,492 29,425 +30.0 +31.0
Home Improvement 120,318 118,802 120,932 –1.0 +2.0
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 334,224 339,759 356,916 +2.0 +5.0
LODGING 8,880 9,570 10,269 +8.0 +7.0
OFFICE 34,647 34,078 35,345 –2.0 +4.0
AMUSEMENTS AND RECREATION 16,174 16,448 17,117 +2.0 +4.0
RELIGIOUS 4,224 4,024 4,212 –5.0 +5.0
EDUCATION 84,320 83,236 85,937 –1.0 +3.0
HEALTH CARE 39,713 41,114 44,318 +4.0 +8.0
COMMERCIAL 43,571 46,030 49,299 +6.0 +7.0
MANUFACTURING 40,059 41,136 43,394 +3.0 +5.0
PUBLIC SAFETY, ADMINISTRATIVE 10,236 10,092 10,205 –1.0 +1.0
TRANSPORTATION 34,867 36,227 38,224 +4.0 +6.0
NON-BUILDING STRUCTURES 209,062 217,221 228,986 +4.0 +5.0
CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT 7,303 6,808 6,965 –7.0 +2.0
HIGHWAYS AND STREETS 79,681 81,549 84,754 +2.0 +4.0
SEWERS SYSTEMS 22,866 23,084 23,558 +1.0 +2.0
POWER 85,043 92,000 99,775 +8.0 +8.0
WATER SUPPLY 14,169 13,780 13,933 –3.0 +1.0
SOURCE: FMI CORP., RALEIGH, N.C. HISTORICAL DATA are COMPILED FROM BUILDING PERMITS, CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE and TRADe-SOURCE ESTIMATES FOR 2012, AS WELL AS A FORECAST FOR 2013 BY FMI.