Construction Starts Forecasted to Increase 6% in 2013
"PCA's forecast assumes the fiscal-cliff issues do not get resolved until after the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, there will be some negative impact on construction as a whole," says David Zwicke, senior economist with PCA, which predicts only a 1.3% increase in construction put-in-place next year, before rebounding strongly by 7% in 2014 and 12% in 2015. "We don't think the economy is strong enough to withstand the shock [of falling off the fiscal cliff]. But we could see some wide ranges in actual construction next year, depending on how things play out," says Zwicke.
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| NAME, AREA AND TYPE | ACTUAL 2011 | ESTIMATE 2012 | FORECAST 2013 | % CHG. '11 - '12 | % CHG. '12 - '13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Construction | 437,748 | 457,925 | 483,675 | +4.6 | +6.0 |
| RESIDENTIAL | 125,907 | 158,125 | 193,400 | +25.6 | +22.0 |
| SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING | 97,345 | 123,500 | 153,100 | +26.9 | +24.0 |
| MULTIFAMILY HOUSING | 28,562 | 34,625 | 40,300 | +21.2 | +16.0 |
| NON-RESIDENTIAL | 164,333 | 148,200 | 155,275 | –9.8 | +5.0 |
| OFFICE BUILDING | 17,275 | 15,750 | 17,400 | –8.8 | +10.0 |
| HOTELS AND MOTELS | 5,342 | 6,000 | 6,700 | +12.3 | +12.0 |
| STORES AND SHOPPING CENTERS | 13,577 | 14,975 | 16,875 | +10.3 | +13.0 |
| OTHER COMMERCIAL | 11,552 | 13,375 | 14,950 | +15.8 | +12.0 |
| MANUFACTURING | 17,114 | 11,800 | 12,775 | –31.1 | +8.0 |
| EDUCATIONAL BUILDINGS | 42,504 | 36,350 | 35,250 | –14.5 | –3.0 |
| HEALTH-CARE FACILITIES | 23,159 | 20,275 | 21,100 | –12.5 | +4.0 |
| OTHER INSTITUTIONAL BUILDINGS | 33,810 | 29,675 | 30,225 | –12.2 | +2.0 |
| NON-BUILDINGS CONSTRUCTION | 147,508 | 151,600 | 135,000 | +2.8 | –11.0 |
| HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES | 56,277 | 50,600 | 52,300 | –10.1 | +3.0 |
| ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC WORKS | 31,428 | 28,700 | 27,500 | –8.7 | –4.0 |
| OTHER PUBLIC WORKS | 16,131 | 21,300 | 20,200 | +32.0 | –5.0 |
| ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 43,672 | 51,000 | 35,000 | +16.8 | –31.0 |
|
SOURCE: MCGRAW-HILL CONSTRUCTION |
| NAME, AREA AND TYPE | ACTUAL 2011 | ESTIMATE 2012 | FORECAST 2013 | % CHG. '11 - '12 | % CHG. '12 - '13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Construction | 475.8 | 504.1 | 510.8 | +5.9 | +1.3 |
| TOTAL RESIDENTIAL Building | 159.6 | 180.5 | 192.7 | +13.1 | +6.8 |
| TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING | 88.1 | 95.4 | 94.8 | +8.3 | –0.7 |
| INDUSTRIAL | 21.3 | 24.3 | 23.4 | +14.1 | –3.6 |
| OFFICE | 14.8 | 15.7 | 15.6 | +6.4 | –0.9 |
| HOTELS, MOTELS | 5.1 | 6.3 | 7.0 | +24.9 | +9.6 |
| HOSPITALS, INSTITUTIONS | 15.2 | 15.9 | 15.7 | +4.6 | –1.1 |
| RELGIOUS AND MISCELLANEOUS | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | –8.1 | –4.1 |
| EDUCATIONAL | 7.1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | +16.7 | –5.8 |
| COMMERCIAL | 17.9 | 18.7 | 19.2 | +4.3 | +2.6 |
| PUBLIC UTILITY | 60.0 | 69.5 | 71.2 | +15.8 | +2.4 |
| PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION | 163.0 | 153.7 | 147.3 | –5.7 | –4.1 |
| BUILDINGS | 63.3 | 57.9 | 53.5 | –8.5 | –7.5 |
| HIGHWAYS AND STREETS | 44.2 | 43.2 | 42.5 | –2.1 | –1.8 |
| CONSERVATION | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | –21.1 | –3.6 |
| SEWER SYSTEMS | 13.7 | 13.0 | 12.6 | –4.8 | –3.2 |
| WATER SUPPLY | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.2 | –9.9 | –4.4 |
| miscellaneous | 23.8 | 23.2 | 23.1 | –2.5 | –0.4 |
| SOURCE: PORTLAND CEMENT ASSOCIATION SKOKIE, ILL. |
| NAME, AREA AND TYPE | ACTUAL 2011 | ESTIMATE 2012 | FORECAST 2013 | % CHG. '11 - '12 | % CHG. '12 - '13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Construction | 788,647 | 824,926 | 892,064 | +5.0 | +8.0 |
| TOTAL RESIDENTIAL | 245,360 | 267,946 | 306,162 | +9.0 | +14.0 |
| SINGLE-FAMILY | 107,796 | 126,651 | 155,805 | +17.0 | +23.0 |
| MULTIFAMILY | 17,247 | 22,492 | 29,425 | +30.0 | +31.0 |
| Home Improvement | 120,318 | 118,802 | 120,932 | –1.0 | +2.0 |
| TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL | 334,224 | 339,759 | 356,916 | +2.0 | +5.0 |
| LODGING | 8,880 | 9,570 | 10,269 | +8.0 | +7.0 |
| OFFICE | 34,647 | 34,078 | 35,345 | –2.0 | +4.0 |
| AMUSEMENTS AND RECREATION | 16,174 | 16,448 | 17,117 | +2.0 | +4.0 |
| RELIGIOUS | 4,224 | 4,024 | 4,212 | –5.0 | +5.0 |
| EDUCATION | 84,320 | 83,236 | 85,937 | –1.0 | +3.0 |
| HEALTH CARE | 39,713 | 41,114 | 44,318 | +4.0 | +8.0 |
| COMMERCIAL | 43,571 | 46,030 | 49,299 | +6.0 | +7.0 |
| MANUFACTURING | 40,059 | 41,136 | 43,394 | +3.0 | +5.0 |
| PUBLIC SAFETY, ADMINISTRATIVE | 10,236 | 10,092 | 10,205 | –1.0 | +1.0 |
| TRANSPORTATION | 34,867 | 36,227 | 38,224 | +4.0 | +6.0 |
| NON-BUILDING STRUCTURES | 209,062 | 217,221 | 228,986 | +4.0 | +5.0 |
| CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT | 7,303 | 6,808 | 6,965 | –7.0 | +2.0 |
| HIGHWAYS AND STREETS | 79,681 | 81,549 | 84,754 | +2.0 | +4.0 |
| SEWERS SYSTEMS | 22,866 | 23,084 | 23,558 | +1.0 | +2.0 |
| POWER | 85,043 | 92,000 | 99,775 | +8.0 | +8.0 |
| WATER SUPPLY | 14,169 | 13,780 | 13,933 | –3.0 | +1.0 |
| SOURCE: FMI CORP., RALEIGH, N.C. HISTORICAL DATA are COMPILED FROM BUILDING PERMITS, CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE and TRADe-SOURCE ESTIMATES FOR 2012, AS WELL AS A FORECAST FOR 2013 BY FMI. |
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