We don't believe it is good planning to use the most optimistic date for every work element of a three-year engineering and construction project and expect to improve on the delivery date and cost targets once the contracts are advertised for bid.

A more rational approach would be to use a Monte Carlo type of random analysis to bound the time frames expected for the project's major design and construction tasks and then produce a schedule of the most likely durations and completion dates, given the most recent project histories for that environment. Then, incentive clauses could be developed to accelerate, at reasonable cost, the interim completion dates for sequential critical tasks.

Even with these cautions, "black swan" events might still frustrate and delay completion and add to project costs. What can you do? It's important to stay alert to the arrival of complexity by checking to see if established project management metrics are reliable and if "critical" activities are increasing in number on the CPM schedule or represent more than 50% of the activities. It's also important to note if CPM updates are overshadowed or made outdated by events, if increased staffing resources don't equate to additional completion gains, and if small events trigger large impacts on multiple work activities.

Confusing signals and conflicting direction from traditional management tools are another sign of trouble, and can easily frustrate the project team. Project managers must implement trial-and-error approaches to search for solutions, and project teams must react with reflective and insightful leadership. In this way, team members' understanding of the complexity can reveal the root causes of impending project failure and avoid them. 

Robert C. McCue P.E., is a consulting engineer for forensic engineering consultant MDC Systems, Paoli, Pa. He can be reached at McCue@mdcsystems.com.