In Colorado, Xcel Energy's plan to replace three coal units at its Cherokee station involves both a coal-to-gas re-powering project and an entirely new gas-fired, combined-cycle unit. The utility says the new 569-MW, combined-cycle unit will begin commercial operation in 2015, and the planned conversion to gas-firing of the 352-MW Cherokee-4 coal unit will be completed in 2017.

Xcel, whose utility subsidiaries serve parts of several states, also is planning gas-fired, combustion-turbine capacity in Minnesota and North Dakota, again to replace coal units going off line.

Another utility taking a two-pronged approach is Grand River Dam Authority in Oklahoma. The state-owned utility this summer decided to retire one of its two coal-fired units, replacing the 490-MW unit with a new, 400-MW, gas-fired,combined-cycle plant. GRDA also will retrofit its remaining coal unit—a 520-MW facility that already is scrubbed—to bring it into full MATS compliance.

Keith Manning, executive vice president at Zachry Holdings, sees real cause for optimism. "We expect to see the long-anticipated gas-fired power-generation market start to improve here. … With the continuing slow-but-steady improvement in the economy, we see certain regions … that will turn to new generation," he says.

Manning predicts that "massive amounts of recoverable unconventional natural gas now in the U.S. will prove to be too tempting to resist as the go-to fuel for new generation. In certain regions … as the industrial load grows due to very significant capital expansions, particularly in the petrochemical sector, power and steam needs will also grow."