Forecast 2012: Recovery Stalls As Public Works Sputter

By Tim Grogan

"The market is stabilizing," according to Murray. "It's setting the stage for a more full-fledged expansion in 2013 or 2014."

Forecast 2012


Total Construction	428,618	409,800	411,800	–4.4	0.0
RESIDENTIAL	120,953	118,350	132,575	–2.2	+12.0
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING	99,966	94,700	104,575	–5.3	+10.0
MULTIFAMILY HOUSING	20,987	23,650	28,000	+12.7	+18.0
NON-RESIDENTIAL	160,219	149,850	152,425	–6.5	+2.0
OFFICE BUILDING	16,561	16,500	17,350	–0.4	+5.0
HOTELS AND MOTELS	3,317	4,600	5,000	+38.7	+9.0
STORES AND SHOPPING CENTERS	12,590	12,600	13,275	+0.1	+5.0
OTHER COMMERCIAL	8,843	10,175	11,825	+15.1	+16.0
MANUFACTURING	9,183	12,400	12,875	+35.0	+4.0
EDUCATIONAL BUILDINGS	46,949	40,900	39,300	–12.9	–4.0
HEALTH-CARE FACILITIES	23,434	22,450	22,875	–4.2	+2.0
OTHER INSTITUTIONAL BUILDINGS	39,341	30,225	29,925	–23.2	–1.0
NON-BUILDINGS CONSTRUCTION	147,446	141,600	126,800	–4.0	–10.0
HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES	58,785	54,000	50,200	–8.2	–7.0
ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC WORKS	32,678	28,600	27,300	–12.5	–5.0
OTHER PUBLIC WORKS	27,529	17,000	17,300	–38.3	+2.0
ELECTRIC UTILITIES	28,453	42,000	32,000	+47.6	–24.0


Total Construction	817,638	834,793	886,236	+2.0	+6.0
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL	249,684	271,053	303,922	+9.0	+12.0
SINGLE-FAMILY	113,377	117,912	137,957	+4.0	+17.0
MULTIFAMILY	17,718	19,136	23,920	+8.0	+25.0
Home Improvement	118,588	134,005	142,045	+13.0	+6.0
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL	352,731	346,177	356,436	–2.0	+3.0
LODGING	11,948	10,037	10,438	–16.0	+4.0
OFFICE	39,163	37,205	39,065	–5.0	+5.0
AMUSEMENTS AND RECREATION	17,092	16,750	17,420	–2.0	+4.0
RELIGIOUS	5,344	4,382	4,250	–18.0	–3.0
EDUCATION	89,429	87,641	91,146	–2.0	+4.0
HEALTH CARE	40,523	41,334	42,574	+2.0	+3.0
COMMERCIAL	40,896	43,759	45,509	+7.0	+4.0
MANUFACTURING	38,877	36,544	35,813	–6.0	–2.0
PUBLIC SAFETY, ADMINISTRATIVE	12,879	12,364	11,993	–4.0	–3.0
TRANSPORTATION	38,304	37,155	38,269	–3.0	+3.0
NON-BUILDING STRUCTURES	215,223	217,564	225,878	+1.0	+4.0
CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT	6,966	6,757	7,095	–3.0	+5.0
HIGHWAYS AND STREETS	82,996	80,506	82,117	–3.0	+2.0
SEWERS SYSTEMS	26,171	25,648	26,930	–2.0	+5.0
POWER	83,832	89,700	94,185	+7.0	+5.0
WATER SUPPLY	15,258	14,953	15,551	–2.0	+4.0

Public works will be down in four out of five regions in 2012 The western region will see a 23% decline in nonbuilding construction activity.

MCGRAW-HILL CONSTRUCTION-STARTS FORECAST FMI CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Forecast

SOURCE: FMI CORP., RALEIGH, N.C. HISTORICAL DATA are COMPILED FROM BUILDING PERMITS, CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE and TRADe-SOURCE ESTIMATES FOR 2011, AS WELL AS A FORECAST FOR 2012 BY FMI.

To see the full report, including analysis and data in PDF format, click here. (Subscription required.)

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KEYWORDS: Forecast

Tim Grogan is formerly Senior Editor

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