After falling to $10.2 billion in 2024 from $10.6 billion in 2023, the market has recovered, and contractors say the current run feels different from the post-COVID surge—more measured and tied to underlying demand rather than supply-chain timing.

“Heading into 2026, conditions feel more grounded in fundamentals,” says Matthews. “Well-structured projects with strong underlying demand continue to move forward at a more measured and sustainable pace.”

Matthews says that steadiness also reflects activity that is distributed across the market rather than just being concentrated in a single area.

“Charlotte appears somewhat unique in that multiple sectors are active simultaneously,” Matthews says. “In some other geographic areas, activity may be concentrated in only one or two sectors, but in Charlotte, there is strength across several asset classes at once, with projects under construction as well as a solid pipeline of upcoming work.”

Continued population growth, strong domestic relocation and the infrastructure investment that follows that growth are among the contributing factors to ongoing activity, he adds.

Meanwhile, manufacturing continues to be one of the stabilizing forces in the Charlotte region, Matthews says, “as large investments tend to drive broader economic activity across housing, retail, health care and infrastructure. Activity in food and beverage, advanced manufacturing and distribution is contributing to sustained development momentum.”

Office and bank building starts dropped to $162 million in 2024 from $401 million in 2023, with Dodge projecting $340 million for 2025 and $491 million for 2026—the sector’s highest projected total in the past five years. Matthews says new opportunities have emerged that were not part of the conversation a year ago, marking a noticeable shift in market sentiment.

Smaller warehouse projects have slowed amid oversupply, but larger bulk distribution facilities tied to major retailers continue to shape the market. Matthews says companies are positioning themselves closer to growing population centers, driving continued investment in large-format distribution even as smaller industrial manufacturers pull back.

Residential construction is adding to the overall volume. Total residential starts are projected at $8.7 billion in 2026, up from $7.8 billion in 2025 and $6.4 billion in 2024. Single-family housing leads with $6.6 billion in projected starts for 2026, while multifamily is forecast at $2.0 billion. Matthews notes that new multifamily supply is taking longer to be absorbed after several years of heavy development, thereby moderating the pace of actual project starts despite a sizable pipeline.

Highway and bridge construction is projected at $486 million in 2026, up from $382 million in 2025. Environmental public works and electric utilities are forecast at $582 million and $20 million, respectively.

Data center construction in other regional markets has tightened the mechanical and electrical labor pool, pulling specialized tradespeople away from the Charlotte area. The pressure has extended to the general contractor level, with data centers recruiting project managers, superintendents and emerging staff across experience levels.

“Workforce constraints were more pronounced in 2024 and into 2025 but appear to be stabilizing somewhat heading into 2026,” Matthews says.

Health care has led the push into prefabrication, with patient room headwalls, bathroom pods, operating room ceiling assemblies, electrical rooms and exterior wall assemblies among the elements built off site. “All of this is only possible with a more detailed modeling effort to create the digital twin of the final assembly,” Matthews says.

Power availability has become a primary site selection factor alongside zoning and permitting, particularly for large energy users. Utilities and local stakeholders are working to address infrastructure constraints, though the issue continues to shape project feasibility across the Carolinas.

Frampton is delivering a 110,000-sq-ft Wegmans Food Market in Charlotte’s Ballantyne submarket on a 14-acre site. The project includes site grading, infrastructure, utility coordination and vertical construction for the grocers entry into the Charlotte market. Matthews says the project reflects population-driven retail demand tied to residential and employment growth in the area.

Matthews describes the Charlotte market as healthy and relatively stable, with the pace of growth returning to more sustainable fundamentals after the post-COVID cycle’s peak. “The quality of project opportunities, strength of backlog and continued demand across multiple industries are contributing to a positive outlook,” he says.