North Carolina 2010 Outlook
North Carolina: Mild Upturn The past year wasn’t anything to celebrate in the Tar Heel State, either. By McGraw-Hill Construction’s estimates, the value of new contracts fell 26% for a 2009 total of almost $14.2 billion, with residential (-39%) and nonbuilding (-27%) the most impacted construction types.
An expected 5% uptick should equate to nearly $14.9 billion in new 2010 contracts in North Carolina, says McGraw-Hill Construction.
As elsewhere, 2010 will be a mix of good news and bad news for North Carolina firms. The nonresidential sector, after falling just 6% during ’09, will drop again, but by just 2% in 2010. That would result in nearly $5.6 billion in new contracts, which is only a mild retrenchment compared to recent years.
Within nonresidential, however, commercial and industrial contracts are expected to decline by 16% and total roughly $1.8 billion. This sector had dropped an estimated 19% during 2009.
Institutional building contracts, such as education and health care, will improve further in 2010. A 6% uptick—on top of 2009’s 4% increase—would result in approximately $3.8 billion in new contracts, which would be a five-year high.
McGraw-Hill Construction projects a 13% increase in the state’s residential market, for a $6.2 billion total. On the heels of 2009’s 39% downturn in this sector, however, the 2010 improvement offers only modest relief.
Finally, North Carolina’s nonbuilding market will likely see the most modest increase of any in the four-state region, according to McGraw-Hill Construction.
After a 27% downturn in 2009, for a $3-billion total, McGraw-Hill expects only a 4% 2010 upturn in nonbuilding and a $3.1-billion total.
Public works projects are expected to improve by 9% in 2010, for a historically average year of about $2.8 billion. Electric utilities contracts will decline further, however. McGraw-Hill forecasts this market to decline 21% and total $384 million. That follows a 57% decline in 2009 for electric utilities projects.
|Millions of Dollars||2003||2004||2005||2006||2007||2008||Forecast 2009||Forecast 2010||2008-09 % Chg||2009-10 % Chg|
|Commercial & Industrial||1,946||2,080||2,133||2,467||3,664||2,617||2,123||1,788||-19%||-16%|