At least in 2009, many contractors had backlogs to finish, even if they were lighter than normal, says Mike Kolakowski, CEO of KBE Building of Farmington, Conn. “I think 2010 will be a challenging year for a lot of companies,” he adds. “I believe that we’ll start to see some positive signs in 2011 but not feel the effects until the middle to end of that year and into 2012.”

The Upstate New York market is actually somewhat stable, but that’s nothing to trumpet because it has been troubled for years, says Jeff Zogg, CEO of the Associated General Contractors of New York. He, too, says this year overall is going to be a hurdle, setting his hopes on 2011.

A similar strain is playing in New Jersey, where private construction has vanished and won’t come back soon, says Brian Tobin, president of the AGC of New Jersey. He says the public side at least has a few big projects looming, including a major expansion of the New Jersey Turnpike from exits 6 to 9 and the first contracts for a new trans-Hudson River train tunnel for New Jersey Transit.

The bigger concern on the public side is finding funding for big capital plans. Tobin says New Jersey’s department of transportation’s fund is nearly dry because of high debt costs. And Denise Richardson, managing director of the General Contractors Association of New York, says her civil contractor members are deeply concerned about rumblings that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority may raid its capital plan to fund its operating budget. “That sends us back to where we were in 1970s, a period of significant disinvestment in the MTA,” she says.

Beyond the bleak prospects is the likelihood that the current downturn will have a lasting impact, says Lou Coletti, president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers’ Association of New York. “What’s different about this economic recession is that it has, in our view, permanently changed the cost structure of the real estate market,” he adds. “We believe that this is a permanent change, and it will take 10 or 15 years to get back to past highs.”

The only bright spot is that some money from the federal stimulus law might still be on the way to fund projects, Zogg says. “I get a sense that there is a lot of stimulus money left to be spent,” he adds.

And Carl Galioto, managing principal in New York for HOK, an architect, says anticipation of stimulus money has kept some already-funded projects on track so far. “It could be a good sign for more projects down the road,” he says.