While GDP growth will plummet in the second quarter, the recession will be short lived, according to Dodge Data & Analytics most recent forecast, "The Potential Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Construction Starts", released April 9. Dodge expects a 2.5% decrease in the first quarter, followed by a much sharper of 18.3% in the second quarter of the year.
Still, “under the assumption that infections peak in May, begin to slow down and abate by July, and that the economy starts very slowly to return to normal, we get a boost in the second half” of the year, says Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics.