Following years of growth since the last recession, the dollar value of total U.S. construction starts is slated to fall 1% in 2019, with a downturn of 4% expected in the upcoming year, according to the 2020 Dodge Construction Outlook. Despite the dip, the economy is in “decent shape,” said Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics, presenting the 2020 market update in Chicago on Oct. 31. “We’re not expecting a recession in 2020," he said.
The drop in 2020 will bring total construction starts to $776.4 billion, from 2019’s $808.7 billion, said Branch, noting that his projection is based “on the assumption that some sort of trade agreement is signed with China to forestall an escalation in tariffs.” He added that while the election may add some uncertainty, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy.