Lumber’s escalation rate is slowly declining, after a prolonged period of double-digit price increases. The ENR 20-city average price for the most common types of lumber is up 6.9% over this time last year, after a 10.4% hike at the end of the first quarter of 2018. Following steel tariff-related uncertainty in 2018, price increases have steadied. ENR’s 20-city average price for steel is up 5% in 2019, while IHS Markit expects small hikes in several steel products over the year.
“Prices will try to increase across mid-2019 but the movement will be erratic,” says John Anton, director of steel at IHS Markit. “Look for prices to rally through midyear but stay far below their mid-2018 peak. The average price for 2019 will be below 2018, but above January levels.”