Jeffrey Robinson, president of PAS, sees a mixed outlook as some sectors remain hot, yet employers are being conservative. “Many firms are starting to pull back a little based on what their future work looks like,” he says. “You can see that especially in areas such as the Great Lakes and the Southeast where construction has been down.” Last year, six Midwest states reported a 3.8% collective increase, the lowest U.S. rate, says PAS. The Southeast was among the strongest regions in 2007 with hikes averaging 4.46%, but rates are set to drop in 2008 to 4.07%, says Robinson.

Given the level of uncertainty, many job candidates are playing it safe. Robinson says he expects voluntary job turnover to drop in 2008 as fewer workers take chances with new employers even for more money. “When the economy gets tough, we see people very unlikely to switch jobs,” he says.